On the morning of Thursday, March 26, The Atlantic published a story entitled “The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal.” In the two most likely scenarios it laid out—four to 12 months, and 12 to 18 months (or more)—the piece cautioned against events that drew large crowds. Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine, summed it up thus: “No Lollapalooza, no Major League Baseball, no crowded beaches.”
"They’re either just over it, or they’ve come to believe it’s a phony pandemic because their own personal grandmother hasn’t been affected yet," said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Irvine, in Orange County. Elected officials last week forced the county health department to scale back a mask-wearing order. "People just think this is a nothingburger. So they think the risk is exaggerated."
The New York Times noted that almost 30 per cent more people in Sweden died during the pandemic than the normal rate there, an increase similar to death rates recently experienced in the U.S. “It’s not a very flattering comparison for Sweden, which has such a great public health system,” Andrew Noymer, demographer at the University of California at Irvine told the newspaper.
Only the worst disasters completely upend normal patterns of death, overshadowing, if only briefly, everyday causes like cancer, heart disease and car accidents. Here’s how the devastation brought by the pandemic in 25 cities and regions compares with historical events. … Sources: … Andrew Noymer; University of California, Irvine ….
"We’re in the land of trade-offs,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist from UC Irvine, who has been observing the virus response in California. “There is no reopening without increase in cases. There is no increase in cases without some mortality. Now, that’s just the way it is."
Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine told the New York Times, “There will be states that open too soon, or states that are too conservative. It is hard to thread the needle.” … We can live out social distancing longer if it means the world will go back to normal faster. And more lives will be saved.