“If the vaccine is really effective, like the measles vaccine or the yellow fever vaccine, it’s just going to land like a ton of bricks and suffocate this. Maybe not quite eradicate it — yellow fever and measles are not eradicated — but it’ll be an utter game changer,” UC Irvine epidemiologist Andrew Noymer says. But if the vaccines are less effective — as many experts expect for at least the first generation — COVID-19 may eventually behave more like the seasonal flu, Noymer says. (Still, the death rate of COVID-19 currently well eclipses that of the seasonal flu.)
“So we’re going to have either a fall/winter wave or a winter wave — a second wave. I can’t exactly tell you when that wave will crest,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health expert and epidemiologist at UC Irvine. “We had this big wave in the summertime, in June/July. everyone remembers that. But that’s not the epidemic. This epidemic is going to have waves — plural. That wave that has now come and gone, that’s not the epidemic gone and over,” Noymer said in a Wednesday phone interview.
Andrew Noymer, UCI associate professor of public health said, “The trials are being run with more transparency than ever before, so I have great faith in getting a fair result from the vaccine process. … We’re also concerned with the efficacy because the FDA here in the United States has said they will approve vaccines with 50% or better efficacy and we have to anticipate that some people who are vaccinated will still get the disease, if indeed, the vaccine is only 50% effective.”
“Thanksgiving makes me nervous,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine said. Noymer clarified that the larger concern when it comes to holiday travel is less about the travel and more about the large gatherings that take place when everyone is finally together. … “But even just driving 45 minutes to someone’s house and sitting around the table at Thanksgiving with people who you don’t normally mix with [is worrying too.]”
“Thanksgiving makes me nervous,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California, Irvine, told The Atlantic. “It’s not just that people are gathering. It’s that they’re gathering amidst the backdrop of this winter-seasonality effect. I just don’t see any scenarios, barring a vaccine, in which we don’t have lots of COVID-19 this winter, and Thanksgiving is going to play a role in that.”
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2020, 12:30 - 1:20 PM
“I expect fall waves starting in mid-October and getting worse as fall heads into winter, and reaching a crescendo certainly after the election,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist at the University of California at Irvine, in an interview with the Washington Post. “Some places will peak around Thanksgiving, some places will peak around Christmas, some places not until January and February.”