We present a mathematical model of measles virus transmission that is tailored to
a dataset on a large outbreak from rural Burundi in the 1980s, in which a major outbreak
occurred despite reasonably high vaccination levels. So-called post-honeymoon outbreaks occur after the introduction of vaccination, and punctuate a vaccine-induced quiet period. These are both demographic and epidemiologic phenomena, since they involve accumulation of cohorts of susceptible individuals when vaccination rates are below about 95%. We estimate an age-explicit "SEIR" PDE model with realistic demography, and discuss the insights for vaccination policy gleaned from the math model. Some of the insights are also applicable to the 2015 "Disneyland" measles outbreak.
Speaker Biography - Andrew Noymer, Ph.D. and Katelyn C. Corey
Andrew Noymer, Ph.D. and Katelyn C. Corey
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine
Andrew Noymer is associate professor of population health and disease prevention at UCI. A public health demographer, he works primarily on infectious disease mortality, but also on all aspects of longevity, as well as historical and social epidemiology. He received his PhD in sociology from Berkeley, and his MSc in medical demography from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Katelyn Corey is a graduating Public Health Sciences major at UCI. She will begin graduate school at UCLA in the fall.
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